Archive - Flat Circle

Flat Circle - Brief pause

Planning to publish again on LLMs + investing

Apr 23 •

February 2025

January 2025

Flat Circle - Are we merely flipping coins?

Plus: adding new Gemini model, upgrading context template, risk analysis for Grok and Sonnet, and 16 upcoming earnings calls

Jan 28 •

Flat Circle - More information, lower accuracy?

Plus: Two research papers, 7 upcoming earnings, another system upgrade

Jan 22 •

Grok and Anthropic calling more than two thirds of earnings correctly

Plus: 11 upcoming earnings and several upgrades to our system

Jan 16 •

Learnings from new model

Plus: Calls on APLD and KBH, reconciling DAL, STZ, TLRY and WBA hits and misses

Jan 13 •

Grok-2 in the lead after 5 earnings

So far Grok-2 up 36%, o1 +10%, Claude +9%, Gemini down 19%

Jan 9 •

Flat Circle - Can the best LLMs predict company earnings?

Benchmarking how OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini and xAI's latest models play the hardest game in the world

Jan 8 •

Flat Circle LLM Benchmark - Methodology

Assessing LLMs' ability to play the hardest game in the world

Jan 8 •

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